What is attribution modelling and why is it hard?
Attribution assigns credit for a conversion to the marketing touchpoints along the customer journey. The model choice changes how budget is allocated.
Common models:
- Last click: simple, overcredits closing channels such as branded search.
- First click: credits awareness, ignores nurturing.
- Linear: equal credit across touchpoints.
- Time decay: more credit to recent touches.
- Position based: weights first and last.
- Data driven: Shapley values or Markov chains estimate each channel's marginal contribution.
SELECT conversion_id, MAX_BY(channel, touch_time) AS channel
FROM touchpoints GROUP BY conversion_id;
Challenges include cross-device and offline journeys, view-through impressions, and correlation between channels. None of these models proves causality; incremental lift requires experiments or geo holdouts. Use attribution for directional budgeting and experiments for causal truth.